2014 Intro and Round One tips

2014 Intro and Round One tips

Well it’s back. Footy 2014 starts in just under a week from now. Of course there have been rule changes, but only minor ones. Only one I really have a problem with is the new interpretation on contact below the knees (which should never have been brought in in the first place). If you’re going to pay soft frees like that, they should only be paid when there’s actually contact, not the fact that there could’ve been contact. But more important questions need answering: who will this year’s Premiership? Hawthorn’s got to be the favourites don’t they? Of course Geelong and Sydney will threaten as usual and perhaps Fremantle (as an Eagles fan I hate saying it) might have another crack, but realistically you have to beat Hawthorn in the H&A Season to be thought of as having a chance.

Most improved? Going off the Nab Challenge and Practice match scores, you’d have to say West Coast, right? Of course, no one except for Melbourne and GWS, really takes the pre-season seriously, but the slaughtering of Fremantle in the NAB Challenge, then the 35 point beating of the Swans in the second match, and then beating Fremantle again in the practice match… even the most hardened Eagles haters have to admit we’re looking as dangerous as we were in 2012. Of course, time will tell if my prediction is true.

In terms of the content this season on the blog, it’ll be much the same so my tips and margins and then the results. One thing I will be adding is my review of the MRP because, let’s be honest, we all like making our own judgements on what they’ve done.  Before I start the Round 1 tips, I just thought I’ll put in my prediction for the final 2014 ladder:

1.       Hawthorn

2.       Geelong

3.       Sydney

4.       Fremantle

5.       Essendon

6.       Port Adelaide

7.       West Coast

8.       North Melbourne

9.       Richmond

10.   Collingwood

11.   Carlton

12.   Adelaide

13.   Gold Coast

14.   Western Bulldogs

15.   Brisbane

16.   GWS

17.   Saint Kilda

18.   Melbourne

ROUND 1

Friday Night: Collingwood Magpies vs. Fremantle Dockers

Etihad Stadium provides the stage for the season opener and I do sort of feel for the Dorkers. It’s my opinion that if you make the Grand Final, your season opener should be at your home ground. Anyway, this match-up is always a nightmare for me. Do I support Fremantle because I hate Collingwood? Or do I support Collingwood because as a West Coast supporter I love to see Fremantle lose? Normally, I base it off what’s going to work best for West Coast but seeing as how it’s Round One and West Coast should easily win, it doesn’t really matter right now. Fremantle have not been impressive being beaten by the Eagles twice and only taking a scratchy win at best over the Bulldogs, but Collingwood haven’t been much better with a loss to Geelong a comfortable win over Richmond and then a scramble to beat to Gold Coast is enough to create doubt. Expect both teams to try and make a statement early so it should be a close game.

My Tip: Dockers by 10 points

Saturday Afternoon: GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans

Seriously AFL? Giving Sydney the Giants Round 1 three years in a row? To be fair, I guess the Swans need to be compensated for losing the COLA and paying $10 million over 9 years for a player who won’t last that long (for those who can’t tell, I’m being sarcastic). But the Giants aren’t experienced enough to beat the Swans, so expect a Swans victory in the Sydney Derby.

My Tip: Swans for 45 points

Saturday Afternoon: Gold Coast Suns vs. Richmond Tigers

I guess Richmond won’t play Gold Coast in Melbourne ever. If they have I’ve never seen it. Richmond will be happy that they’re not playing the Suns at Cazaly’s Stadium in Cairns but if the Suns keep Metricon Stadium like the fortress it became last season, they’ll be very difficult to beat at home.

My Tip: Suns by 15 points

Sunday Afternoon: Carlton Blues vs. Port Adelaide Power

The Power will want to make amends for their last game of the season. They allowed Carlton into the Finals after Essendon was stood down but they didn’t last too long anyway and now they get their chance again. The thing is, Port succeeded last season because teams severely underestimated them and they now have to prove that it was no fluke that they made the eight and Carlton provides a good test for them.

My Tip: Power by 7 points

Thursday Afternoon: Geelong Cats vs. Adelaide Crows

Adelaide aren’t a match for Geelong. Especially at Kardinia, the Crows don’t have much of a chance unless Tex comes back early, but that’s unlikely to happen.

My Tip: Cats by 35 points

Friday Night: North Melbourne vs. Essendon Bombers

North Melbourne will go in as favourites in this match. It’s easy to see why when you look at the last four times they played: North by 45 (R21, 2013), North by 24 (R20, 2012), Essendon by 2 (R1, 2012) and North by 21 (R13, 2011). Given how unimpressive a team that’s supposed to be focussed on football rather the media has been playing, North have a definite edge here.

My Tip: Kangaroos by 20 points.

Saturday Afternoon: Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions

I don’t think I need to say too much. We all saw what the Hawks did to Brisbane in the NAB and they arguably weren’t even at full strength. Expect a similar scoreline.

My Tip: Hawks by 70 points

Saturday Afternoon: Saint Kilda Saints vs. Melbourne Demons

Heaven and Hell, although for Saint Kilda it’s really Hell and Hell. A side that is nowhere near challenging anyone (the Giants showed us exactly how far behind the Saints are at the moment), facing a Paul Roos coached Melbourne side is a nightmare. The Demons are set to win in Round 1 for the first time in a long time.

My Tip: Demons by 30 points

Sunday Afternoon: West Coast Eagles vs. Western Bulldogs

The first of the three easy kills the AFL has so kindly handed to us. The Bulldogs don’t have a chance. Not in Perth. Potentially they would at the Kennel (Etihad Stadium) but not at the Nest (Subiaco Oval). The last time they played here it was a 70 point slaughtering, plus with Nic Nat back and a full strength Eagles side, the Bulldogs are going to be hard pressed to find the scoreboard.

My Tip: Eagles by 85 points (that may be wishful thinking on my part, but expect it to be a huge margin)