Round 21

Friday Night: Hawthorn Hawks vs. Collingwood Magpies

Collingwood’s recent form suggests a close match. They smashed Essendon, they embarrassed Sydney but the Premiership favourite will still be the favourite in this match though they won’t win by much and both teams will be playing finals regardless of finishing position.

My tip: Hawks by 10 points.

Saturday Afternoon: Port Adelaide Power vs. Gold Coast Suns

The Suns are proving to be a difficult side to beat at the moment losing only one of their last four games. The Power know they need to win to not risk dropping out of the eight in the next couple of weeks. AAMI Stadium provides a powerful advantage but if the Suns can shut down Wingard the Power will have a difficult time producing a score. This could be an upset

My tip: Suns by 4 points

Saturday Afternoon:  Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues

As an Eagles supporter it would help immensely if the Blues lost and I think I might get it. Richmond will wanting to push for top four which is just on the cards for them if the other results fall their way. The Tigers know they can win but will be playing finals regardless of a win, loss or draw.

My tip: Tigers by 30 points.

Saturday Afternoon:  Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne

Essendon have now lost 12 consecutive quarters over three weeks for almost three 60+ point losses. North Melbourne have proven they are capable of defeating top eight sides (beating Geelong by 4 points, flogging the Tigers by 62 points) and should go in as slight favourites given their form. The question is, will the ASADA inquiry being over (temporarily) help the Bombers get back on track? Or will Hird and other club officials being charged break what’s left of their spirit? We’ll find out on Saturday.

My tip: North by 47 points.

Saturday Night: West Coast Eagles vs. Geelong Cats

What will the umpiring be like for the game? I only ask because last time these two played there 17 deliberate out of bounds free kicks paid. Some were there, but a majority was ridiculous calls. The Cats form has been failing in the last few weeks, most recently they just held on while being over powered by Port in the last quarter to escape with a win at home. The Eagles on the other hand have had their form steadily improving beating Gold Coast by 17, then belting Essendon by 53 and now they’re lining up the Cats for a third straight win which we desperately need. The Battle of the Selwoods will also be interesting and Joel and Scott will most likely play on each other at some stage.

My tip: Eagles by 15 points.

Saturday Night: Brisbane Lions vs. GWS Giants.

Brisbane are obviously going to win. The question is can the Giants make it a close game or maybe even steal a win here. With Voss sacked and the former Fremantle coach Mark Harvey taking the reins for last three weeks, with Jonathan Brown gone it’s looking possible especially if they can’t shut down Cameron. Cameron kicked four goals against Fremantle who has some of the best defensive players in the competition at the moment. I think it will be close.

My tip: Lions by 1 point.

Sunday Afternoon: Melbourne Demons vs. Fremantle Dockers.

My tip: Dockers by 60 points.

Sunday Afternoon: Sydney Swans vs. Saint Kilda Saints

My tip: Swans by 35 points.

Sunday Afternoon: Western Bulldogs vs. Adelaide Crows.

The Bulldogs can pull out surprises this year. They weren’t expected to beat West Coast, but they did. They weren’t expected to defeat Carlton, but they did. Adelaide now looks like a target of opportunity for the Dogs as they set up a start for next season, and I think they can do it and bring a third surprise win to the 

table.

My tip: Bulldogs by 12 points.

Round 20

Hawks Win in a Boring Friday Night

I’m just going to jump straight in to best on ground because there’s not much to talk about. Hawthorn were always going to beat Saint Kilda it was only a question of by how much. 46 points is the answer.

Best on ground goes to Jarrod Roughead who is the only one really challenging Josh Kennedy for the Coleman. It’ll come down to who can out score the other over the next three weeks but Kennedy’s 2 goal lead puts him at a slight advantage. Anyway, Roughead 5 goal haul clearly stands out as the best performance on the ground.

Hawthorn play Collingwood next week which will much more exciting and not only an as Eagles fan, I think Hawthorn are a strong chance to win this game. Saint Kilda play Sydney in what will be a slaughtering at the SCG.

My tips: 1 from 1

Tigers defeat a difficult Lions

The Lions have been a comeback side for most the season, their most noticeable come-from-behind win came against Geelong at the Cattery of all places, and they threatened to do it again against the Tigers. The Tigers lead by just under 50 points at some stages before the Lions came within 3 goals late in the last quarter before being repelled giving the Tigers a comfortable 23 point win.

Best on ground difficult to pick because no one player really dominated, except for maybe Rockliff with his 34 disposals.

The Tigers play a Blues side that is coming from humiliation while the Lions play the Giants which could be potentially difficult.

My tips: 2 from 2

Cats Take a Win from a Surging Power

The Cats went into the game as slight favourites, and played like it for three quarters keeping the power to only 10 goals for three quarters. But the fourth belonged to the Power who booted 6.3 to 1.0 but the Cats 1 goal was enough to secure a 25 point win at the Cattery.

Best on ground is easily Monfries who pulled a 7 goal bag against one of the best defenders in the competition.

The Power now play the Suns at AAMI in a must win clash as the top 8 is again under attack from West Coast and Carlton while the Cats battle the Eagles who are now showing why they were considered Premiership contenders during the Pre-season.

My tips: 3 from 3

Bulldogs not to be Underestimated

Very few people would’ve seen this one coming. The Bulldogs put Carlton’s top 8 hopes on hold after a 28 point at Etihad Stadium. Inaccuracy though was largely what won the Bulldogs the game. They kicked 16.21, the average amount of behinds for a game for one team is somewhere between 12 and 16 (I forget the exact number), so if we correct it the Bulldogs really only won by 19-23 points, which is still a shock loss for Carlton.

Best on ground is Grant who kicked 4 goals for the Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs have an interesting game against the Crows at the Kennel (Etihad) while the Blues have a must-win clash against Richmond if they want to have any chance of making the 8 if Port beat the Suns.

My tips: 3 from 4

Magpies Defeat Rampaging Swans

The Swans had been decimating sides for the past month and it was no surprise that they went in as favourites to defeat Collingwood. The surprise was the performance that Collingwood put on. Collingwood has lost the first quarter and then one last three for the past month now (the only exception to that being their demolition of Essendon last week) so a 29 point defeat for the reigning Premiers was not something Sydney wanted to consider as they look to go back-to-back flags. To Collingwood’s credit (you won’t see me say this often) they did play very well after quarter time.

Best on ground, even though they lost, was Kurt Tippet who booted 6 goals (more than half of the Swans score).

The Swans get a chance at redemption when they play the Saints at SCG which might as well already be counted as a win for the Swans while Collingwood play what will essentially be a finals match against Hawthorn as they look to threaten the top 4.

My tips: 3 from 5

Suns Win for Gablett’s 250th

The Demons showed that they can stand up to sides and sometimes challenge sides. Up to halftime it was a close game but the Suns took control after that, doing just enough to hold a 13 point margin at the final siren.

Best on ground is Campbell Brown (even though he is now suspended for the rest of the Season) with 3 goals.

The Suns take on the Power in what could be a close contest if Gary Ablett is on fire while the Demons look at a demolition against Fremantle who do have one of the easiest runs home I’ve ever seen.

My tips: 4 from 6

LeCras LeStar as Eagles Keep Slim Finals Hopes Alive

Essendon’s nightmare continues. They’ve now lost 12 consecutive quarters. The only positive is they avoided another 60+ point belting. The 53 point beating also raises questions about the ASADA investigation. Even if you believe Essendon is innocent (which personally I don’t. When you have the captain admitting to it, that in my book is automatic guilty) you have to wonder if they already know what will happen and have simply given up due to them knowing they will lose their Premeirship points for this season. Up to halftime, Essendon put on a good show, closing the margin to just 2 points. But a 6 goal to 2 goal quarter from West Coast threw the door wide open and another 6 goal to 1 goal final quarter sealed the 53 point win for the Eagles who are getting very close to banging down the Finals door.

As you might’ve guessed, my best on ground has to be Mark LeCras with 5 goals.

Essendon battle North Melbourne next week in a game which matter very much if Essendon are stripped of their points while the Eagles will look to continue the march to September against the Cats. Watch out finals, we are coming.

My tips: 5 from 7

Dockers Beat Giants

Surprise, surprise… the Dockers belted the Giants. Dockers are dangerous this season, well they’re not. When you look at their draw they’ve only played the three Premiership fancies once in the entire season and a majority of their wins have come against the bottom 10 teams so they haven’t really proven anything. Their draw is the reason as to where they are on the Ladder. I have no doubt that if they had played Hawthorn twice like we have, played Sydney again and the Cats again as well, they would not in 4^th place they’d be 7^th, maybe 6^th by percentage.

Best on ground I’m going to give Cameron, mainly because I’m anti-Fremantle and he kicked the most goals of anyone out on the ground.

The Giants play the Lions in a tough game and Fremantle have another easy game against the Demons who they haven’t played yet this season.

My tips: 6 from 8. (also I saw this and thought it was funny. I mean, what else is it good for? https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/944783_643241959042304_367725012_n.jpg)

Crows Hand North a Season Ending Loss

North Melbourne had Finals hope going into the game but lead for less than 3 minutes of the entire game. Why did they play horribly? There’s no roof to close to at AAMI Stadium.

This doesn’t normally happen but I’m going to give best on ground and goal of the year to Daniel Wells who kicked a goal from behind the centre circle so about 80-85m away. You don’t that very often.

North Melbourne play Essendon in a very winnable game while the Crows play the Bulldogs in a game that doesn’t really affect the ladder too much.

My tips: 6 from 9.

Total tips: 117 from 165 games.

70.90% correct

Round 19:Wrap up and Round 20 tips

Ok, Last week I do it like this, hopefully I can fit doing the long version around my Uni timetable.

Round 19:

4 from 9
111 from 156 games
71.15% correct

Round 20:

Friday:

Saint Kilda Saints vs. Hawthorn Hawks
Saints will get slaughtered.
My tip: Hawks by 57 points.

Saturday:

Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions
Lions to put up a fight but lose the match in the midlfield
My tip: Tigers by 35 points.

Geelong Cats vs. Port Adelaide Power
Evenly matched at face value this season but the Cats are a shade more skillful and have a destructive forward that will out the Power backline.
My tip: Cats by 20 points

Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have proven they can hold their own against far better sides and have even stolen a few wins as the underdogs (West Coast as evidence), but a top-eight assaulting Carlton should win comfortably
My tip: Blues by 25 points.

Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons
My tip: Suns by 30 points.

Sydney Swans vs. Collingwood Magpies
The Magpies have claimed a big win over the Bombers which they needed but the Swans know they must win to get back in the 4.
My tip: Swans by 37 points.

Sunday:

Essendon Bombers vs. West Coast Eagles
West Coast have better form over the last fortnight and are in desperate need of a win, but the Bombers did beat us over here although only just. maybe they need another injection? doesn't matter, once they're stripped, the Eagles will get the four points anyway.
My tip: Eagles by 12 points.

Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne
Difficult game to tip. It could go either way, North are probably slightly more offensive which could win them the game if the Crow's defence fails.
My tip: North by 5 points

Fremantle Dockers vs. GWS Giants
My tip: Dockers by 75 points.

Round 18 wrap and Round 19 tips

Round 18

6 out 9
107 out of 147
72.8% correct

Round 19:

Friday:

North Melbourne vs. Geelong Cats
Cats by 24 points.

Saturday:

GWS Giants vs. Melbourne Demons
Demons by 6 points.

Hawthorn Hawks vs. Richmond Tigers
Hawks by 18 points

West Coast Eagles vs. Gold Coast Suns
Eagles by 27 points.

Carlton Blues vs. Fremantle Dockers
Dorkers by 8 points.

Brisbane Lions vs. Saint Kilda Saints
Lions by 25 points.

Sunday:

Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney Swans
Swans by 20 points

Adelaide Crows vs. Port Adelaide Power
Crows by 5 points

Collingwood Magpies vs. Essendon Bombers
Bombers by 12 points.

Round 17 wrap up and Round 18 tips

Ok, I've accidentally left this a bit late so I'm doing a fast and simple version.

Round 17:
5 out of 9 correct
Total: 101 out of 138
73.19% correct overall

Round 18

Friday:
Essendon Bombers vs. Hawthorn Hawks
Hawks by 10 points.

Saturday:
Gold Coast Suns vs. Carlton Blues
Suns by 12 points

Melbourne Demons vs. North Melbourne
North by 30 points

Collingwood Magpies vs. GWS Giants
 Magpies by 60 points.

Fremantle Dockers vs. Adelaide Crows
Dockers by 20 points

Geelong Cats vs. Saint Kilda Saints
Cats by 35 points.

Sunday:

Port Adelaide Power vs. Brisbane Lions
Lions by 4 points.

Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles
Eagles by 70 points

Sydney Swans vs. Richmond Tigers
Swans by 40 points

Round 17

Friday Night: North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues.

Carlton comes off a comfortable win against the Saints while North blew a huge lead to lose the Lions last week. That in itself makes it an interesting match. To add to the pressure of this game North to win to keep any chance of playing finals alive while the Blues to win to stand a chance of over-taking the Power in 8^th place being a similar position to the Eagles. Brad Scott’s coaching position could under threat if North don’t make a solid attempt at the eight from here but a loss would be season ending. So North need the win more than the Blues who will have one more shot if they lose to North.

My tip: North by 5 points.

Saturday Afternoon: Hawthorn Hawks vs. Western Bulldogs.

This is a training drill for the Hawks who continue to battle with Geelong for 1^st place. Bulldogs have no chance.

My tip: Hawks by 45 points.

Saturday Afternoon: GWS Giants vs. Essendon Bombers.

As much I hate Essendon, it’s ridiculous to think that the Giants stand a chance. I personally think that the Bulldogs have a better chance of beating Hawthorn.

My tip: Bombers by 60 points.

Saturday Afternoon: Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies.

Queensland must feel special now. Collingwood visits them twice in one season! Usually it’s twice (if that) in one decade. Unfortuately, Collingwood made a mockery of the Lions earlier in the season and despite the massive improvement from the Suns, I can’t see Collingwood losing.

My tip: Magpies by 41 points.

Saturday Night: Melbourne Demons vs. Brisbane Lions.

The Northern Territory always provides challenging conditions, purely because it’s hot and humid. Both teams don’t have a lot of experience in hot and wet conditions but the Lions probably have a slight advantage on form, but the Demons have a rare chance to take another win this season.

My tip: Lions by 10 points.

Saturday Night: Saint Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power.

With star goal-scoring duo in Nick Reiwoldt and Stephen Milne back in the side the Saints look a little bit dangerous. The Ladder position doesn’t truly reflect how well the Saints have played this season. They just lost to West Coast and they put up a good fight against the Cats and the Swans. They were dominated by the Hawks but so were Port although the scoreboard didn’t really reflect that. The Power also beat the Swans and as much as I want the Saints to win because it’d help the Eagles, I don’t see it happening.

My tip: Power by 6 points.

Sunday Afternoon:  Richmond Tigers vs. Fremantle Dockers.

The last time these two teams played, the Dockers won by a point under some controversial circumstances and the Tigers probably deserved to win. It’s in Tigerland this time and the Tigers have been a force to be reckoned with over there and I think they might have the measure of the Dockers this time. The loss of their captain for three weeks won’t make much of a difference.

My tip: Tigers by 4 points.

Sunday Afternoon: West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans.

It’s a do-or-die match for the Eagles. Lose and we will likely be two games out of the Eight, but win and we set up a good assault for the eight when we play the Bulldogs and then the Suns. Sydney are playing to make the top four but if Fremantle lose which, as a West Coast supporter, I hope happens, then a win becomes irrelevant as Sydney will still hold fourth place. Despite being the underdogs, I can’t tip against the Eagles. Hopefully this is the upset of the round.

My tip: Eagles by 7 points.

Sunday Afternoon: Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats.

The Cats are closing the percentage gap between themselves and Hawthorn and need a huge win to close it even more. The Crows are a perfect opportunity to do that as their season is over. Unfortunately, I don’t think the Crows are going to lie down and let the Cats beat them easily.

My tip: Cats by 25 points.

Round 16 Wrap Up

The Nail in the Crows Coffin

Adelaide needed a win, and for the first quarter dominated just like Carlton did. But Collingwood turned it around with a 7 goal to 2 goal second quarter and from there it was Collingwood as they stormed to victory by 27 points, 17.9.111 to 12.12.84. The loss ends the Crows’ finals hopes, leaving them to ponder next year’s aspirations while the Magpies still set their sights on the top four.

Best on ground is again, Pendlebury with 2 goals, 42 disposals, 19 kicks, 23 handballs, 6 marks, 5 tackles and a Dream Team score of 153. Lynch was best on ground for the Crows with a 4 goal haul but it wasn’t enough to win the game.

The Crows now play out the rest of the season with a game against Geelong. A loss there will crush any chance of a very long short finals appearance (for any chance, Adelaide would need to win all games from here on out and then it would come down to percentage). The Magpies play the Suns at Metricon as they look to bring themselves closer to a top four entry.

My tips: 1 from 1.

Hawks Clinical Against Power

The Power were never going to be in it with the Hawks slotting 6 goals before Port scored their first goal for the game, though they provided a challenge when they trailed by just 2 goals at half-time, but another 6 goal to 2 goal quarter secured the win, the fourth was purely defending a 31 point lead, which was extended to a 45 point victory.

Best on ground is a tie between Roughead and Gunston. The pairing was almost identical all game. They had 10 goals, 26 disposals, 22 kicks, 4 handballs, 15 marks and 3 tackles between them.

The Hawks will continue their tough battle for top spot with Geelong next week when they play the Bulldogs in another demolition while the Power face Saint Kilda who could have a controversial side next week if Milne is selected again.

My tips: 2 from 2.

Cats Strangle the Demons

Demons were never expected to win and the Cats took full advantage of it, allowing the Demons only 1 goal per quarter while kicking multiple themselves. The positive for the Demons is that the Cats didn’t score more than 100 points (although coming close).

Best on ground was Johnson for the Cats who had Dream Team field day with 1 goal, 38 disposals, 23 kicks, 15 handballs, 6 marks, 8 tackles and 156 DT points.

The Cats continue their battle with Hawthorn when they play the Crows while the Demons take the Lions on in the Northern Territory.

My tips: 3 from 3.

Tigers Break the Hoodoo

It was close in Cairns and the Suns are now becoming a threatening force in Queensland. Richmond’s inaccuracy, while ending up being what won the game for them, nearly lost it for them. 6.17 is atrocious kicking and was really what kept the Suns in the game. If the Tigers want to play finals, they have to put away sides like Gold Coast.

Best on ground would go to however played on Garry Ablett, but since I can’t remember who that was, I’ll award a secondary Best on ground to Pettard from the Tigers who had 24 disposals, 20 kicks, 4 handballs, 11 marks and 7 tackles scoring 132 DT points.

The Tigers have a chance for redemption when they play the Dockers in Melbourne while the Suns play a threatening Collingwood on the Gold Coast.

My tips: 4 from 4

Blues break the Losing Streak

A Controversial match for one reason: Stephen Milne was allowed to play. For those who aren’t familiar with Milne, he has been charged with 4 counts of rape dating back to 2009. After a quarter-time lead, the Blues tore the Saints to shreds to win by 36 points.

Best on ground goes to Henderson from Carlton who kicked 4 goals, 16 disposals, 14 kicks, 2 handballs and 12 marks.

Carlton have a Friday Night match against North Melbourne who will be discussed next while the Saints play Port at Etihad

My tips: 5 from 5

The Northern Collapse

North Melbourne failed to do this week, what they did last week: play four quarters. They played three, arguably they played two with the Lions outscoring them in the last two quarters. So what happened? North just stopped. After halftime they no longer seemed interested in playing anymore. 17.3 is incredible accuracy but it goes to show that if you don’t have the defensive pressure to go with it, teams can come back and defeat you. What is surprising is that North had more possessions and more inside 50’s and managed to lose, once again, snatching defeat from the claws or victory.

Best on ground goes to both a Kangaroo and a Lion. Petrie once again best on ground with a 5 goal haul while Rockliff for the Lions had a DT domination scoring 134 points.

North Melbourne face Carlton as stated above in an important match. A loss will be season ending while a win while just keep finals prospects alive while the Lions battle the Demons in the Northern Territory.

My tips: 5 from 6.

Swans Win the “Battle of the Bridge”

I hope you were sitting down when you read that. The win was expected. The 129 point belting was not so expected. That’s all I’m saying.

Take your pick from the Swans for Best on ground because choices are plenty.

The Swans battle West Coast, who have proven that they can hold their own against the top sides, at Subi next week while the Giants face another potential belting at the hands of Essendon.

My tips: 6 from 7.

Fremantle’s 17^th Premiership

I do of course mean Derby win. Fremantle fans seem to get the two confused. It was a close game for three quarters and the Eagles held momentum at the end of the third even though there were only 2 points in it, before Fremantle somehow started getting away with questionable antics. For example, what does Jack Darling have to do to earn a holding free kick. It happened at least 6 times with no mention from the umpires. The Highlight excluding the small lead for the Eagles was Pavlich being reported. I’d like to see him get 6 weeks to right the wrong last week for McKernon. Embley should be cleared as he had eyes for the ball, the collision with Pearce was a complete accident, although the knowing the MRP and how they like crucifying the Eagles players will probably get 4 weeks up to 5 weeks with a “Bad Record” (despite being looked at only once this season).

Best on ground, despite being held, was Darling who should have 11 goals but only had a 5 goal bag (his other 6 goals should’ve come from the 6 missed holding free kicks).

Fremantle play Richmond, most likely without Pavlich who will be gone for at least a week (again knowing how the MRP love the Dorkers players) while the Eagles battle it out with the Swans to keep the prospect of a top 8 entry alive as they slipped only percentage to 10^th.

My tips: 6 from 8.

Bombers Win Against the Dogs

I again bet you were glad you were sitting down for that one. The win expected, although earned against a fighting Bulldogs.

Best on ground was Winderlich who is a new name and put on a clinic for the Bulldogs with 4 goals, 24 disposals, 14 kicks, 10 handballs, 13 marks, 7 tackles and a 153 point DT score.

The Bulldogs battle Hawthorn while the Bombers can pencil a win against the Giants.

My tips: 7 from 9.

Now, I did make a mistake last week, I miscounted. I had 89, not 90 in total.

Total tips: 96 from 129 games

74.42% correct