Round 17 wrap up and Round 18 tips

Ok, I've accidentally left this a bit late so I'm doing a fast and simple version.

Round 17:
5 out of 9 correct
Total: 101 out of 138
73.19% correct overall

Round 18

Friday:
Essendon Bombers vs. Hawthorn Hawks
Hawks by 10 points.

Saturday:
Gold Coast Suns vs. Carlton Blues
Suns by 12 points

Melbourne Demons vs. North Melbourne
North by 30 points

Collingwood Magpies vs. GWS Giants
 Magpies by 60 points.

Fremantle Dockers vs. Adelaide Crows
Dockers by 20 points

Geelong Cats vs. Saint Kilda Saints
Cats by 35 points.

Sunday:

Port Adelaide Power vs. Brisbane Lions
Lions by 4 points.

Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles
Eagles by 70 points

Sydney Swans vs. Richmond Tigers
Swans by 40 points

Round 17

Friday Night: North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues.

Carlton comes off a comfortable win against the Saints while North blew a huge lead to lose the Lions last week. That in itself makes it an interesting match. To add to the pressure of this game North to win to keep any chance of playing finals alive while the Blues to win to stand a chance of over-taking the Power in 8^th place being a similar position to the Eagles. Brad Scott’s coaching position could under threat if North don’t make a solid attempt at the eight from here but a loss would be season ending. So North need the win more than the Blues who will have one more shot if they lose to North.

My tip: North by 5 points.

Saturday Afternoon: Hawthorn Hawks vs. Western Bulldogs.

This is a training drill for the Hawks who continue to battle with Geelong for 1^st place. Bulldogs have no chance.

My tip: Hawks by 45 points.

Saturday Afternoon: GWS Giants vs. Essendon Bombers.

As much I hate Essendon, it’s ridiculous to think that the Giants stand a chance. I personally think that the Bulldogs have a better chance of beating Hawthorn.

My tip: Bombers by 60 points.

Saturday Afternoon: Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies.

Queensland must feel special now. Collingwood visits them twice in one season! Usually it’s twice (if that) in one decade. Unfortuately, Collingwood made a mockery of the Lions earlier in the season and despite the massive improvement from the Suns, I can’t see Collingwood losing.

My tip: Magpies by 41 points.

Saturday Night: Melbourne Demons vs. Brisbane Lions.

The Northern Territory always provides challenging conditions, purely because it’s hot and humid. Both teams don’t have a lot of experience in hot and wet conditions but the Lions probably have a slight advantage on form, but the Demons have a rare chance to take another win this season.

My tip: Lions by 10 points.

Saturday Night: Saint Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power.

With star goal-scoring duo in Nick Reiwoldt and Stephen Milne back in the side the Saints look a little bit dangerous. The Ladder position doesn’t truly reflect how well the Saints have played this season. They just lost to West Coast and they put up a good fight against the Cats and the Swans. They were dominated by the Hawks but so were Port although the scoreboard didn’t really reflect that. The Power also beat the Swans and as much as I want the Saints to win because it’d help the Eagles, I don’t see it happening.

My tip: Power by 6 points.

Sunday Afternoon:  Richmond Tigers vs. Fremantle Dockers.

The last time these two teams played, the Dockers won by a point under some controversial circumstances and the Tigers probably deserved to win. It’s in Tigerland this time and the Tigers have been a force to be reckoned with over there and I think they might have the measure of the Dockers this time. The loss of their captain for three weeks won’t make much of a difference.

My tip: Tigers by 4 points.

Sunday Afternoon: West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans.

It’s a do-or-die match for the Eagles. Lose and we will likely be two games out of the Eight, but win and we set up a good assault for the eight when we play the Bulldogs and then the Suns. Sydney are playing to make the top four but if Fremantle lose which, as a West Coast supporter, I hope happens, then a win becomes irrelevant as Sydney will still hold fourth place. Despite being the underdogs, I can’t tip against the Eagles. Hopefully this is the upset of the round.

My tip: Eagles by 7 points.

Sunday Afternoon: Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats.

The Cats are closing the percentage gap between themselves and Hawthorn and need a huge win to close it even more. The Crows are a perfect opportunity to do that as their season is over. Unfortunately, I don’t think the Crows are going to lie down and let the Cats beat them easily.

My tip: Cats by 25 points.

Round 16 Wrap Up

The Nail in the Crows Coffin

Adelaide needed a win, and for the first quarter dominated just like Carlton did. But Collingwood turned it around with a 7 goal to 2 goal second quarter and from there it was Collingwood as they stormed to victory by 27 points, 17.9.111 to 12.12.84. The loss ends the Crows’ finals hopes, leaving them to ponder next year’s aspirations while the Magpies still set their sights on the top four.

Best on ground is again, Pendlebury with 2 goals, 42 disposals, 19 kicks, 23 handballs, 6 marks, 5 tackles and a Dream Team score of 153. Lynch was best on ground for the Crows with a 4 goal haul but it wasn’t enough to win the game.

The Crows now play out the rest of the season with a game against Geelong. A loss there will crush any chance of a very long short finals appearance (for any chance, Adelaide would need to win all games from here on out and then it would come down to percentage). The Magpies play the Suns at Metricon as they look to bring themselves closer to a top four entry.

My tips: 1 from 1.

Hawks Clinical Against Power

The Power were never going to be in it with the Hawks slotting 6 goals before Port scored their first goal for the game, though they provided a challenge when they trailed by just 2 goals at half-time, but another 6 goal to 2 goal quarter secured the win, the fourth was purely defending a 31 point lead, which was extended to a 45 point victory.

Best on ground is a tie between Roughead and Gunston. The pairing was almost identical all game. They had 10 goals, 26 disposals, 22 kicks, 4 handballs, 15 marks and 3 tackles between them.

The Hawks will continue their tough battle for top spot with Geelong next week when they play the Bulldogs in another demolition while the Power face Saint Kilda who could have a controversial side next week if Milne is selected again.

My tips: 2 from 2.

Cats Strangle the Demons

Demons were never expected to win and the Cats took full advantage of it, allowing the Demons only 1 goal per quarter while kicking multiple themselves. The positive for the Demons is that the Cats didn’t score more than 100 points (although coming close).

Best on ground was Johnson for the Cats who had Dream Team field day with 1 goal, 38 disposals, 23 kicks, 15 handballs, 6 marks, 8 tackles and 156 DT points.

The Cats continue their battle with Hawthorn when they play the Crows while the Demons take the Lions on in the Northern Territory.

My tips: 3 from 3.

Tigers Break the Hoodoo

It was close in Cairns and the Suns are now becoming a threatening force in Queensland. Richmond’s inaccuracy, while ending up being what won the game for them, nearly lost it for them. 6.17 is atrocious kicking and was really what kept the Suns in the game. If the Tigers want to play finals, they have to put away sides like Gold Coast.

Best on ground would go to however played on Garry Ablett, but since I can’t remember who that was, I’ll award a secondary Best on ground to Pettard from the Tigers who had 24 disposals, 20 kicks, 4 handballs, 11 marks and 7 tackles scoring 132 DT points.

The Tigers have a chance for redemption when they play the Dockers in Melbourne while the Suns play a threatening Collingwood on the Gold Coast.

My tips: 4 from 4

Blues break the Losing Streak

A Controversial match for one reason: Stephen Milne was allowed to play. For those who aren’t familiar with Milne, he has been charged with 4 counts of rape dating back to 2009. After a quarter-time lead, the Blues tore the Saints to shreds to win by 36 points.

Best on ground goes to Henderson from Carlton who kicked 4 goals, 16 disposals, 14 kicks, 2 handballs and 12 marks.

Carlton have a Friday Night match against North Melbourne who will be discussed next while the Saints play Port at Etihad

My tips: 5 from 5

The Northern Collapse

North Melbourne failed to do this week, what they did last week: play four quarters. They played three, arguably they played two with the Lions outscoring them in the last two quarters. So what happened? North just stopped. After halftime they no longer seemed interested in playing anymore. 17.3 is incredible accuracy but it goes to show that if you don’t have the defensive pressure to go with it, teams can come back and defeat you. What is surprising is that North had more possessions and more inside 50’s and managed to lose, once again, snatching defeat from the claws or victory.

Best on ground goes to both a Kangaroo and a Lion. Petrie once again best on ground with a 5 goal haul while Rockliff for the Lions had a DT domination scoring 134 points.

North Melbourne face Carlton as stated above in an important match. A loss will be season ending while a win while just keep finals prospects alive while the Lions battle the Demons in the Northern Territory.

My tips: 5 from 6.

Swans Win the “Battle of the Bridge”

I hope you were sitting down when you read that. The win was expected. The 129 point belting was not so expected. That’s all I’m saying.

Take your pick from the Swans for Best on ground because choices are plenty.

The Swans battle West Coast, who have proven that they can hold their own against the top sides, at Subi next week while the Giants face another potential belting at the hands of Essendon.

My tips: 6 from 7.

Fremantle’s 17^th Premiership

I do of course mean Derby win. Fremantle fans seem to get the two confused. It was a close game for three quarters and the Eagles held momentum at the end of the third even though there were only 2 points in it, before Fremantle somehow started getting away with questionable antics. For example, what does Jack Darling have to do to earn a holding free kick. It happened at least 6 times with no mention from the umpires. The Highlight excluding the small lead for the Eagles was Pavlich being reported. I’d like to see him get 6 weeks to right the wrong last week for McKernon. Embley should be cleared as he had eyes for the ball, the collision with Pearce was a complete accident, although the knowing the MRP and how they like crucifying the Eagles players will probably get 4 weeks up to 5 weeks with a “Bad Record” (despite being looked at only once this season).

Best on ground, despite being held, was Darling who should have 11 goals but only had a 5 goal bag (his other 6 goals should’ve come from the 6 missed holding free kicks).

Fremantle play Richmond, most likely without Pavlich who will be gone for at least a week (again knowing how the MRP love the Dorkers players) while the Eagles battle it out with the Swans to keep the prospect of a top 8 entry alive as they slipped only percentage to 10^th.

My tips: 6 from 8.

Bombers Win Against the Dogs

I again bet you were glad you were sitting down for that one. The win expected, although earned against a fighting Bulldogs.

Best on ground was Winderlich who is a new name and put on a clinic for the Bulldogs with 4 goals, 24 disposals, 14 kicks, 10 handballs, 13 marks, 7 tackles and a 153 point DT score.

The Bulldogs battle Hawthorn while the Bombers can pencil a win against the Giants.

My tips: 7 from 9.

Now, I did make a mistake last week, I miscounted. I had 89, not 90 in total.

Total tips: 96 from 129 games

74.42% correct

Round 16

Friday Night: Collingwood Magpies vs. Adelaide Crows

The Magpies dominated three quarters against Carlton (only losing the first quarter) and Adelaide only for half a game against West Coast before Josh “the King” Kennedy stepped up and put the nail in the Crows coffin. This will be Adelaide’s last chance to make an attempt to play finals, lose and it will be a season ending defeat. The Magpies need a win to hold their place in the eight safe for another week, and will probably get it even though the Crows now that their season is on the line.

My tip: Magpies by 20 points.

Saturday Afternoon: Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks

The Hawks are now locked in a fierce battle for top spot with Geelong after their loss last week while Port need to win avoid a possible drop out of the eight. AAMI Stadium, while a fortress for Port at the moment, Hawthorn have only lost to Geelong this season and the defeated the Crows at AAMI so the ground won’t provide much of an advantage for the Power.

My tip: Hawks by 45 points.

Saturday Afternoon: Geelong Cats vs. Melbourne Demons

This game will be over before it begins. The Cats are simply too good for the Demons to win. The only way Melbourne could possibly beat Geelong is if Geelong played blindfolded, and even then they’re no certainty to win. Easy win for the Cats.

My tip: Cats by 70 points.

Saturday Afternoon: Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns

While recent form says an easy win for the Tigers, the Suns have humiliated the Tigers before, plus the Tigers were humiliated by North Melbourne, a team that the Suns defeated in Queensland. Despite being played in Cairns, Queensland, the Suns are the away team and I’m fine with that because unlike Collingwood, the Suns don’t play 15-17 games at Metricon each season, they may have in their first season (I can’t remember back that far) but, the Tigers will be looking to make amends for last week’s 62 point flogging.

My tip: Tigers by 15 points.

Saturday Night: Carlton Blues vs. Saint Kilda Saints

Carlton seems to be on an unbreakable losing streak. They kicked 8 straight goals before they kicked a behind against Collingwood and still managed to lose. The Blues stay in the eight by only a win a few percent more than West Coast, and I can’t really take anything away from the Saints because they led Fremantle by about three goals. For a team that’s third from the bottom of the ladder (above only the Giants and Melbourne) that is a very good lead and having Riewoldt back in the side will help them. If Carlton are going to break their losing streak, they have to do it here otherwise finals will be off the cards.

My tip: Blues by 9 points.

Saturday Night: Brisbane Lions vs. North Melbourne

The Lions won over the Suns convincingly, by the Kangaroos nearly doubled that margin against a much better team, if they bring that performance against the Lions this week, it will be another 10 goal win. A loss for North however would be season ending making it nearly impossible to make the eight.

My tip: North by 45 points.

Sunday Afternoon: Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants

Similar to Geelong vs. Melbourne. Easy win in the Battle of the Bridge for the Swans.

My tip: Swans by 80 points.

Sunday Afternoon: West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers.

It’s the game where Perth sits divided. For West Coast fans it’s the Western Derby, for Fremantle fans it the Grand Final and I’d put the probability for either side to win at about 50/50, maybe the Eagles as slight favourites because having no Luke McPharlin will hurt the Dorkers more than having no McGinnity will hurt the Eagles. On the subject of McGinnity, his three-match suspension is an absolute joke. By the rules that the AFL wrote, the offence is a reprimand to one week with a bad record, not three. The MRP is mad with power. I could deal with the three weeks if McKernon had gotten about 6 weeks for his elbow to head of Sheppard. His two-week suspension is basically saying what Patty did is worse than an elbow to the head. Anyway, back to the Derby, with Wellingham likely to be in, Fremantle’s attack is limited to only two players as the likely match ups are Glass/Pavlitch, McKenzie/Ballantyne, Schofield/Walters and Wellingham/Mayne. That means that Fremantle’s goal scoring ability will rely heavily on their mid-field which is also out matched with Shuey, Priddis, Nic Nat, Cox, Sheppard and Scotty Selwood to make his return this week, add Dalziell into that mix and the Eagles have a powerful midfield. Once upon a time, Sandilands might’ve been able to handle the Ruck power of Cox and Natinui, but not now, he’s simply missed too many games this season to be able to compete properly. Still it will be a close game, but as always, I’ll tip an Eagle win.

My tip: Eagles by 14 points

Sunday Afternoon: Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers.

Despite my hatred for the Bombers, they are simply too good for the Dogs, even without their drugs. Easy win for the Bombers, even if Jobe doesn’t return.

My tip: Bombers by 25 points.

Round 15 Wrap Up

For simplicity, from now on I will post all the games results after the round is complete.

Blues Rolled by Magpies

41 points. Carlton kicked 8 goals before their first behind, and managed to lose by 41 points. To make matters worse, the defeat was self-inflicted. They allowed Collingwood score a total of 10.11 in the second and third quarters combined, scoring only 2.3 themselves in the same quarters combined. Either one of two things is happening at Carlton: 1) the players aren’t playing for Malthouse (most likely) or 2) Malthouse isn’t actually coaching, he’s just a figurehead for the club. Either way, something has to be done.

Best on ground is Dane Swan, who you would’ve wanted as your captain in Dream Team: 3 behinds, 41 disposals, 25 kicks, 16 handballs, 7 marks, 8 tackles and a Dream Team score of 163.

Collingwood play the Crows in what will be a bloodbath at the MCG on Friday night. Carlton play Saint Kilda in an attempt to end their losing streak on Saturday.

My tips: 1 for 1.

Bulldogs Escape in a close Giants Clash

The Giants are showing glimpses of what they can do. What they need to do is stretch that over four quarters. They did it for three against the Bulldogs before losing it in the fourth. All that says is that Giants aren’t fit enough to run a game out yet. Given a few years, I think the Giants will become a genuine competition threat, like the Suns, within the next couple of years.

No one really played an outstanding game so best on ground is open for debate, so I’m not going to award a best on ground for this game.

The Giants play the Swans in the Sydney derby, obvious who will win that. The Bulldogs play Essendon which is also obvious in terms of who will win.

My tips: 2 for 2.

North Launch One Last Assault on the Eight

After scoring 29 points against Fremantle, most people (myself included) counted them out. North Melbourne though, defied everyone to produce one last mathematical chance of making finals. They can barely afford to lose two games from now on if they want to play finals. They defeated Richmond by 62 points at Etihad Stadium in a blistering performance. Their second quarter was amazing:  9.3 to 0.5 to produce a 55 point lead at half time. Richmond was never going to come back from that. Inaccuracy didn’t help Richmond either.

Best on ground was Tarrant with a four goal bag and small numbers of disposals and possessions.

North Melbourne play Brisbane in a winnable game while Richmond battle the Gold Coast who beat them last year in Cairns at the former Manuka Oval.

My tips: 2 from 3

 Lions win the Battle of the Coast

West Coast and Fremantle play the Western Derby. The Swans and the Giants play “The Battle of the Bridge” so I’m calling the games between Brisbane and the Suns “The Battle of the Coast”. And the Lions won this round there are plenty more games to be played as the rivalry builds in Queensland. Brown’s three goals helped the Lions to a 33 point win over the Suns.

Best on ground is a three-way tie between Brown, Staker and Zorko for their 3 goals apiece.

I’m not going to mention the games for both teams next week as they were mentioned above.

My tips: 2 from 4.

Eagles Win in a 6-point Thriller

West Coast kept their Finals hopes alive with a 6 point win over Adelaide which came from the Josh “the King” Kennedy. His left foot goal on a tight angle just inside 50, secured the win with just 53 seconds left on the clock. At the very least it would’ve been a draw. To the Crows credit they did give West Coast a very good run and accuracy was probably what hurt them the most in the end, 9 goals and 15 behinds, if even two of those had been goals, Adelaide would’ve won.

Dalziell is becoming a dangerous weapon for the Eagles who is sharing best on ground with Kennedy. Dalziell kicked 1 goal, had 26 disposals, 16 kicks, 10 handballs, 9 marks, 6 tackles and 124 in Dream Team. Kennedy, of course, gets in with his 4 goal haul (including the winning goal).

The Crows, as I mentioned play Collingwood in a game they’re not very likely to win while the Eagles have a chance to reverse a round 1 beating when they battle the cross-town rivals Fremantle in the Western Derby (which hopefully we win).

My tips: 3 from 5.

 Kennet Curse Continues for Cats

Straight away, I’ll admit it. I’m probably one of the few people in Australia who doesn’t know why the “Kennet Curse” is called the “Kennet Curse”. Inaccuracy though nearly lost it for the Cats who scored 1.13 over the second and third quarters, nearly allowing Hawthorn back into the game. Still a 10 point win is a 10 point win and well done to the Cats who are now 11 straight wins against the Hawks.

Best on ground goes to Joel Selwood with his 1 goal, 34 disposals, 16 kicks, 18 handballs, 2 marks and 7 seven tackles, as well as whoever kept Buddy Franklin to 1 goal 2 behinds, that in itself is a brilliant effort.

The Cats now play the Demons in an attempt to close the percentage gap between themselves and Hawthorn while Hawthorn will play the Power in an attempt to do the opposite and increase the percentage gap.

My tips: 4 from 6.

Swans Dominate the Demons

The Demons were never really in it. The time to really measure the Demons potential will be next year when they get a new coach. Still, a 31 point loss against a premiership favourite is an improvement for them and Neil Craig.

Best on ground, there's a long list of players to choose from so I’m not doing it for this game.

The Demons, as mentioned above play Geelong in another game they will definitely lose while the Swans take part in the second “Battle of the Bridge” against the Giants for the season.

My tips: 5 from 7.

Dockers Win for Returning Captain

The year that Fremantle win a Premiership will be the year that Hell is frozen and despite how good they questionably are, this year is not that year. They were flogged by both Hawthorn and Geelong and drew with the Swans (the three Premeirship favourites for this year). Also, with Sandilands and Pavlich returning to the side, Fremantle should steamrolled the Saints, not beaten them by a comfortable 30 points.

Best on ground, unfortunately, goes to Ballantyne for his 5 goal haul. But he will always be remembered for his premature celebration at the second Western Derby 2 years ago.

Speaking of the Western Derby, Fremantle play the Eagles next week in what will be a fierce battle with almost a full Eagles side (Wellingham still needs to pass a fitness test before he can play and will most likely miss the Derby). Saint Kilda play Carlton in a do-or-die clash for the Blues.

My Tips: 6 from 8.

Bombers Topple the Power

It was always going to be thought to be close and a 30 point win sounds about right for it. The Power led at quarter time and that was it. Essendon kicked the Power out of the game, though they remained competitive.

Best on ground goes to Bellchambers for his 5 goal haul as well as 17 disposals, 10 kicks, 7 handballs, 10 marks and 1 tackle.

Essendon play the Bulldogs in an easy win match. The power now have to find a way to defeat Hawthorn at their AAMI Stadium fortress which would please Cats fans as a Hawks loss would see the Cats take 1^st place on the ladder.

My tips: 7 from 9 (90 from 120 games) (75% correct).