Round 2 Tips

Apologies for the lateness of this. I’ve been dealing with a slow internet connection. By here are my tips for this round.

Thursday Night: Carlton Blues vs. Richmond Tigers

Elimination Final replay and no doubts that Richmond will be wanting to make amends for last time, though the recent history suggests it will be difficult. The last time Richmond beat the Blues was by 5 points in Round 1 last year and the only time in the their last four meetings (including the final). If Richmond want to win, they need something special and Jake King may provide it, but my tip still goes to the Blues.

My Tip: Blues by 15 points.

Friday Night: Essendon Bombers vs. Hawthorn Hawks

The assurance that Hird will return for season 2015 will take some weight off the Bombers shoulders, but the question is, is it enough to beat the reigning Premiers? In my opinion, there are only two teams capable of beating the Hawks: Geelong who have demonstrated it more than once, and Richmond who despite their abysmal list have somehow managed to get over the Hawks in both encounters in the last two seasons. Obviously, Essendon isn’t one of the two.

My Tip: Hawks by 40 points

Saturday Afternoon: Saint Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants

There is no reason why the Giants can’t beat the Saints. They’ve defeated the Swans who have at least 10 times the list of the Saints, so it’s certainly doable. It depends though on if the Giants can produce the same performance twice consecutively. The only two times they’ve played the Saints have demolished them, but that means nothing now. Shutting down Cameron will critical for a Saints victory.

My Tip: Giants by 25 points

Saturday Afternoon: Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows

The South Australian Showdown. Port won the first Showdown at AAMI Stadium when the Crows joined the AFL. They won the last Showdown at AAMI Stadium in Round 19 last year. So you can see they’ll be wanting to win their first game on Adelaide Oval which also happens to be the first Showdown on Adelaide Oval. The Crows of course will be desperate to break that tradition. In order to do that, they’ll need to put sufficient space between themselves the Power by three-quarter time to hold out under the Power’s famous fast finishing final quarter.

My Tip: Power by 10 points.

Saturday Afternoon: Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns

The Dockers have beaten the Suns three times out of three matches. Don’t expect that to change, especially as the game is in Perth.

My Tip: Dockers by 35 points

Saturday Night: Sydney Swans vs. Collingwood Magpies

The AFL obviously thinks that the hole called ANZ Stadium is good enough for an AFL game this year, despite numerous complaints from not only opposition sides but the Swans as well about the grounds conditions. I don’t why the game is being played there (presumably there’s a cricket game on at the SCG) but the AFL needs to listen and not put games there. The game is 50/50 as to who will win. Collingwood won last time by 29 points, but I feel the Swans will come out and really want to show what they can do after being comfortably beaten by the Giants (as an added bonus, if they do win, it’ll keep the Magpies at the bottom of the ladder).

My Tip: Swans by 30 points.

Sunday Afternoon: Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats

In future, if I go straight to the tip, it means that it’s fairly obvious who will win the game.

My Tip: Cats by 39 points.

Sunday Afternoon: Melbourne Demons vs. West Coast Eagles

My Tip: Eagles by 80 points

Sunday Afternoon: Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne

The Bulldogs could prove challenging, but I doubt the Roos will want to put on the same performance twice in a row.

My Tip: North by 40 points

Round One Results

DOCKER DESTRUCTION

70 points. That was the season opening margin that Fremantle pulled over Collingwood. I disagree with Nathan Buckley, Fremantle weren’t undermanned but assuming they were, what does that say about Collingwood? 5.16 for four quarters simply isn’t good enough for a team that claims to be flag threat. That being said, Fremantle were very good and did a lot of the damage in the second quarter when they held the Magpies to only 4 points for the quarter while adding 40 of their own.

Take your pick of Fremantle players for Best on Ground. There’s a long list with the Rat (Ballantyne) topping it with three goals.

Fremantle play against Gold Coast in Perth in an easy opening two games for a team that made the Grand Final last year. In my opinion they should’ve played Geelong, Sydney and then Hawthorn, not necessarily in that order though. Collingwood regroup and play Sydney at the mud pit of a ground called ANZ Stadium, which could result in a second loss.

My Tips: 1 from 1

LITTLE BROTHER TOPPLES BIG BROTHER IN BATTLE OF THE BRIDGE

No one would’ve picked the Giants to defeat the Swans in their third year in the competition. Or should they have? Last year the Suns pulled an impressive third year performance and the Giants showed they are more than capable of the same. Not only did they beat the Swans, they did it comfortably by 32 points, slotting the last 6 goals of the game. It’s also worth noting that the Giants only lost the first quarter, winning the other three, but 99 to 67 sends a message to the other teams that they might have to do more than just show up to win against them. Also, scoring 9 goals for the game, the Swans would’ve wanted at least 3 of them to come from Buddy seeing as how that’s what they’re paying him $1.1 mil a year to do.

Best on Ground is Cameron with 4 goals, launching his campaign to take the Coleman medal, losing it to Roughead last year.

The Giants play the Saints in two weeks in a winnable game while the Swans get a chance at redemption against Collingwood at ANZ.

My Tips: 1 from 2

SUNSHINE AGAIN ON THE GOLD COAST

Richmond has a horrible record in Queensland against the Suns. It’s almost like they find it impossible to win up there. It doesn’t help that Metricon is still a fortress for the Suns (although, how long it lasts will be seen over the rest of the season). That being said if the Tigers want to win games, then they have to lead for longer than 2 or 3 minutes of it.

Best on Ground is Ablett (of course) with 41 disposals and 2 goals.

Gold Coast take on Fremantle in Perth in two weeks, which they will probably lose while Richmond battle Carlton on Thursday Night in two weeks.

My Tips: 2 from 3

Fast as Lightning Power

The Blues aren’t match fit. That much was evident on Sunday a fortnight ago when then they played 2 and half quarters of the game before falling away 1 goal to 7 in the last quarter. If Carlton want to play Finals then they need more than that. They need to play at least three quarters, then maybe they can get away with falling away in the last in their defence is good enough. Port of course were renown for their fast finishing game style last year that saw them into the 8, and will most likely be up there again.

Best on Ground Westhoff who, despite who copped a nasty hit from Walker, booted 5 goals. Also on Walker, I’ve watched the footage of it multiple times and to me it’s ambiguous. You can’t say definitively that Walker took his eyes off the footy in the spoiling attempt. He may have at the last second, but you can’t tell from the footage available alone.

Carlton have an Elimination Final rematch against Richmond on Thursday Night while Port Adelaide have two weeks to prepare for their Showdown at Adelaide Oval.

My Tips: 3 from 4

Cats Maul the Crows

The Crows are missing Tex. Or at least a strong hit up full forward. The Cats realized that and exploited it. The Crows fought though for three quarters but the lack of that forward really hurt them in the fourth.

Best on Ground is Jimmy Bartel, kicking 4 goals in his 250^th game. Probably should’ve had 5, but still a great effort.

The Cats have another easy win against the Lions at the Gabba while the Crows get their Showdown against Port

My Tips: 4 from 5

Bombers Dominate Roos at Docklands

Well, I guess I got proved wrong. Although I think it’s a case where Essendon didn’t the game, North Melbourne lost it. 9.6 is not a score Brad Scott or the North Melbourne board will want to see again, but the bombers took advantage of it to stake a 39 point win.

Best on Ground goes to Lindsay Thomas. It would be easy to give to Essendon player in Chapman or Goddard, but Thomas was the only player for North who really looked like he was trying, kicked some great goals and took great contested marks. His performance is probably what kept it from being a 10 goal flogging.

North get to prove something against the Bulldogs at Etihad again while the Bombers take on the Hawks.

My Tips: 4 from 6

Hawks Duplicate NAB Challenge Display

Straight to Best on Ground for this game because everyone knew that the Hawks would win. It’s a tie between Roughead and Bruest who kicked 10 goals between them.

Hawks play Essendon who could challenge but will most likely be beaten while the Lions play against Geelong at the Gabba.

My Tips: 5 from 7

Saints Spoil Roos’ Demonic Persective

The Demons would’ve fancied their chances here, but after quarter time they were fighting heavy one-way traffic to give Alan Richardson his first win as an AFL senior coach.

Best on Ground has to be Riewoldt, doesn’t it? 3 goals and 23 disposals almost single handedly giving the Saints the win. I’d say that qualifies as a BoG performance.

The Saints take on the Giants in an interesting game. One of them will be 2-0 unless it’s a draw. For the Saints that would be the best start to a season since Ross Lyon left and to the Giants it would be the start they’ve ever had. The Demons, they don’t get an easy game. West Coast who have pummeled them the last four times they’ve played them at least.

My Tips: 5 from 8

Eagles Demonstrate Their Power at the Start of a New Era

The Eagles won’t be easy beats this year. No injuries, 2^nd on the Ladder and an attention grabbing 65 point win to start the season off. We all knew West Coast would win, it was just a question of by how much. I’m a little upset that we didn’t dethrone Fremantle from 1^st, but if it puts Collingwood on the bottom, then Fremantle can stay there for now.

Best on Ground has to be LeCras. 5 goals and back near his best. He will be a force to be reckoned with in tough games.

The Eagles play Melbourne and the Bulldogs play North Melbourne. Both the games already decided.

My Tips: 6 from 9

Total tips: 6 from 9 games

66.6% correct

Things that should’ve been looked at but weren’t

Nothing this week. Pretty happy with how the MRP did things (for once). Wellingham probably should’ve challenged and Rockliff was probably a bit stiff to get a week, but overall it wasn’t too bad

2014 Intro and Round One tips

2014 Intro and Round One tips

Well it’s back. Footy 2014 starts in just under a week from now. Of course there have been rule changes, but only minor ones. Only one I really have a problem with is the new interpretation on contact below the knees (which should never have been brought in in the first place). If you’re going to pay soft frees like that, they should only be paid when there’s actually contact, not the fact that there could’ve been contact. But more important questions need answering: who will this year’s Premiership? Hawthorn’s got to be the favourites don’t they? Of course Geelong and Sydney will threaten as usual and perhaps Fremantle (as an Eagles fan I hate saying it) might have another crack, but realistically you have to beat Hawthorn in the H&A Season to be thought of as having a chance.

Most improved? Going off the Nab Challenge and Practice match scores, you’d have to say West Coast, right? Of course, no one except for Melbourne and GWS, really takes the pre-season seriously, but the slaughtering of Fremantle in the NAB Challenge, then the 35 point beating of the Swans in the second match, and then beating Fremantle again in the practice match… even the most hardened Eagles haters have to admit we’re looking as dangerous as we were in 2012. Of course, time will tell if my prediction is true.

In terms of the content this season on the blog, it’ll be much the same so my tips and margins and then the results. One thing I will be adding is my review of the MRP because, let’s be honest, we all like making our own judgements on what they’ve done.  Before I start the Round 1 tips, I just thought I’ll put in my prediction for the final 2014 ladder:

1.       Hawthorn

2.       Geelong

3.       Sydney

4.       Fremantle

5.       Essendon

6.       Port Adelaide

7.       West Coast

8.       North Melbourne

9.       Richmond

10.   Collingwood

11.   Carlton

12.   Adelaide

13.   Gold Coast

14.   Western Bulldogs

15.   Brisbane

16.   GWS

17.   Saint Kilda

18.   Melbourne

ROUND 1

Friday Night: Collingwood Magpies vs. Fremantle Dockers

Etihad Stadium provides the stage for the season opener and I do sort of feel for the Dorkers. It’s my opinion that if you make the Grand Final, your season opener should be at your home ground. Anyway, this match-up is always a nightmare for me. Do I support Fremantle because I hate Collingwood? Or do I support Collingwood because as a West Coast supporter I love to see Fremantle lose? Normally, I base it off what’s going to work best for West Coast but seeing as how it’s Round One and West Coast should easily win, it doesn’t really matter right now. Fremantle have not been impressive being beaten by the Eagles twice and only taking a scratchy win at best over the Bulldogs, but Collingwood haven’t been much better with a loss to Geelong a comfortable win over Richmond and then a scramble to beat to Gold Coast is enough to create doubt. Expect both teams to try and make a statement early so it should be a close game.

My Tip: Dockers by 10 points

Saturday Afternoon: GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans

Seriously AFL? Giving Sydney the Giants Round 1 three years in a row? To be fair, I guess the Swans need to be compensated for losing the COLA and paying $10 million over 9 years for a player who won’t last that long (for those who can’t tell, I’m being sarcastic). But the Giants aren’t experienced enough to beat the Swans, so expect a Swans victory in the Sydney Derby.

My Tip: Swans for 45 points

Saturday Afternoon: Gold Coast Suns vs. Richmond Tigers

I guess Richmond won’t play Gold Coast in Melbourne ever. If they have I’ve never seen it. Richmond will be happy that they’re not playing the Suns at Cazaly’s Stadium in Cairns but if the Suns keep Metricon Stadium like the fortress it became last season, they’ll be very difficult to beat at home.

My Tip: Suns by 15 points

Sunday Afternoon: Carlton Blues vs. Port Adelaide Power

The Power will want to make amends for their last game of the season. They allowed Carlton into the Finals after Essendon was stood down but they didn’t last too long anyway and now they get their chance again. The thing is, Port succeeded last season because teams severely underestimated them and they now have to prove that it was no fluke that they made the eight and Carlton provides a good test for them.

My Tip: Power by 7 points

Thursday Afternoon: Geelong Cats vs. Adelaide Crows

Adelaide aren’t a match for Geelong. Especially at Kardinia, the Crows don’t have much of a chance unless Tex comes back early, but that’s unlikely to happen.

My Tip: Cats by 35 points

Friday Night: North Melbourne vs. Essendon Bombers

North Melbourne will go in as favourites in this match. It’s easy to see why when you look at the last four times they played: North by 45 (R21, 2013), North by 24 (R20, 2012), Essendon by 2 (R1, 2012) and North by 21 (R13, 2011). Given how unimpressive a team that’s supposed to be focussed on football rather the media has been playing, North have a definite edge here.

My Tip: Kangaroos by 20 points.

Saturday Afternoon: Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions

I don’t think I need to say too much. We all saw what the Hawks did to Brisbane in the NAB and they arguably weren’t even at full strength. Expect a similar scoreline.

My Tip: Hawks by 70 points

Saturday Afternoon: Saint Kilda Saints vs. Melbourne Demons

Heaven and Hell, although for Saint Kilda it’s really Hell and Hell. A side that is nowhere near challenging anyone (the Giants showed us exactly how far behind the Saints are at the moment), facing a Paul Roos coached Melbourne side is a nightmare. The Demons are set to win in Round 1 for the first time in a long time.

My Tip: Demons by 30 points

Sunday Afternoon: West Coast Eagles vs. Western Bulldogs

The first of the three easy kills the AFL has so kindly handed to us. The Bulldogs don’t have a chance. Not in Perth. Potentially they would at the Kennel (Etihad Stadium) but not at the Nest (Subiaco Oval). The last time they played here it was a 70 point slaughtering, plus with Nic Nat back and a full strength Eagles side, the Bulldogs are going to be hard pressed to find the scoreboard.

My Tip: Eagles by 85 points (that may be wishful thinking on my part, but expect it to be a huge margin)